AI's iPhone Moment

I like looking for analogies to help explain new trends. I posted last week using computing advancements in chess as a proxy for how we might view the current developments in AI. But that also got me thinking about other times of rapid technological change and what they might tell us about what’s on the horizon.

If we look at the telegraph, for example, instantaneous communication enabled not only faster news reports (and, to some extent, the creation of News as we now think of it) but also brought huge changes to the financial markets because market updates, crop yields, and stock prices could all be shared globally. Coupled with the recently improved steam engine, telegraphs paved the way for railroads and revolutionized transportation.

Much more recently, the dot-com boom (or bubble) has some interesting lessons. We all remember Pets dot com and the irrational hype around tech stocks. But, in many ways, we also underestimated the effects of the Internet. In December 1995, there were fewer than 16 million users on the Internet. By December 2000, there were more than 360 million.

Even then, we heard things like, “People won’t trust the internet with their money; they’ll always want a bank.” And “Who would buy clothes online if you can’t try them on?” Today, digital banking is a $18B market and is projected to grow at 14% per year through 2030. The global online apparel market is estimated at greater than $500B.

What does this tell us about AI? I don’t have a crystal ball, but even through all the hype, it’s possible we’re underestimating the impact. AI technology will continue to advance, and user trust in that technology will grow. Soon, complementary technology will come along that will change how we use AI. Think about how the iPhone changed how we interact with the Internet. How far off is AI’s iPhone moment?